Blackout Warning: Energy Expert Says Ecuador Faces Generation Deficit Despite Government Denial

The Warning

Energy sector expert Marco Acuña stated on April 8, 2026 (source) that Ecuador has registered an electrical generation deficit that could lead to power cuts during peak consumption hours.

The government's Energy Minister Inés Manzano has pushed back, stating that Ecuador will not face blackouts in the near term.

The Risk Factors

Colombia Energy Cutoff

Colombia suspended all electricity sales to Ecuador as part of the bilateral trade war that began in early 2026. Ecuador had been importing Colombian electricity as a peak-demand backstop — supplemental power purchased during high-consumption periods to prevent shortfalls.

That safety net no longer exists.

Coca Codo Sinclair

Ecuador's largest power plant (1,500 MW rated capacity) is operating at less than 50% of its design output due to 7,600+ unfixed fissures in water distributors and Coca River erosion. The government is formally accepting the plant from builder Sinohydro by April 17 (source) — despite the defects.

Hydroelectric Dependency

Approximately 75% of Ecuador's electricity comes from hydroelectric generation. The system is inherently vulnerable to drought. The 2024 blackout crisis — which produced 14-hour daily power cuts — was caused by exactly this combination of factors.

The Government's Response

Minister Manzano points to:

• New thermal generation capacity added since 2024
• Current rainy season maintaining reservoir levels
• Operational improvements at existing plants

What This Means for Expats

• No immediate crisis. The rainy season is helping, and current generation appears sufficient for now
• The risk window is July-November 2026 — Ecuador's dry season. If rainfall drops and the Colombia cutoff persists, peak-hour rationing becomes possible
• The 2024 playbook: if blackouts return, they'll likely follow the same pattern — rotating 2-4 hour cuts during evening peak hours, announced a day in advance. Businesses and residents should have backup plans
• Emergency contacts: ECU 911 for all emergencies. CENTROSUR (Cuenca's electricity distributor) posts outage schedules on social media during rationing periods

Sources: Prensa Latina, Primicias