Two Years In, China Trade Deal Has Widened Ecuador's Deficit by 467% — The Numbers

The Ecuador-China Free Trade Agreement hit its two-year anniversary on May 1, 2026. The results? Imports from China are surging. Exports are nearly flat. And the trade deficit has exploded.

The Numbers

| Metric | 2023 (Pre-Agreement) | 2025 (With Agreement) | Change | |--------|---------------------|----------------------|--------| | Exports to China | $5.669 billion | $5.920 billion | +4.43% | | Imports from China | $6.004 billion | $7.821 billion | +30.26% | | Non-petroleum trade deficit | -$335 million | -$1.901 billion | +467% |

Put simply: for every dollar more Ecuador sends to China, China sends back several dollars more in goods.

What Ecuador Sells

Shrimp remains the anchor — $3.411 billion in exports, up $457 million from 2023. Mining products, balsa wood, and bananas have also posted gains. A new protocol for dairy exports was signed in May 2025 for future shipments.

But overall export growth has been tepid. China dropped from Ecuador's #1 export destination in 2023 to #3 by 2025, despite remaining the largest non-petroleum market.

What China Sells

Ecuador's main purchases from China include:

• Machinery and technology: $2.7+ billion
• Vehicles: $1.2+ billion
• Raw materials for domestic industries

Analysts describe this as market substitution — Ecuador is now buying from China items it previously sourced from Europe and the United States. Walk through any electronics store or auto dealership in Ecuador and the shift is visible.

What This Means for Expats

You're already feeling this in everyday prices. The surge in Chinese imports means more affordable electronics, appliances, and vehicles — but potentially at the cost of quality and local industry. Chinese-brand vehicles, phones, and household goods are increasingly dominant in Ecuadorian retail.

The trade deficit matters for the dollar economy. Ecuador uses the U.S. dollar, which means the country can't print money to cover trade imbalances. A $1.9 billion deficit means that much cash leaving the Ecuadorian economy. If the trend continues, it could put pressure on dollar liquidity — the same concern that surfaces every time Ecuador's trade balance deteriorates.

Watch the shrimp sector. Shrimp is Ecuador's economic lifeline with China. If Chinese demand softens — or if tariff retaliation from other countries disrupts supply chains — the ripple effects would reach employment, coastal communities, and the broader economy.

Source: El Universo