Ecuador Faces 18% Blackout Probability From October — Here's What Cenace Is Warning

Ecuador's national grid operator Cenace is projecting an 18% probability of power blackouts during the upcoming dry season, from October 2026 through March 2027.

The warning comes as Ecuador's energy supply chain faces pressure from multiple directions simultaneously.

The Supply Gap

Colombia suspended electricity sales to Ecuador on January 22, 2026, removing up to 450 megawatts from the grid — roughly 10% of Ecuador's average daily demand. The cutoff is part of broader diplomatic and trade tensions between the two countries.

Meanwhile, Ecuador's largest power source — the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant — has proven chronically unreliable. In 2025, the plant experienced 33 operational shutdowns, with at least one forced stoppage every month from April onward. The cause: heavy rainfall sends sediment into the Coca River, clogging intake systems and forcing turbines offline.

The Government Response

The Noboa administration is moving to fill the gap with six rented diesel thermal plants — the most expensive form of electricity generation available. The government has also requested voluntary power disconnections from mining operations, steel companies, and large industrial consumers.

Additionally, a debt emission has been announced to fund emergency energy infrastructure.

The Economic Stakes

Cenace's modeling puts the potential economic damage at three levels:

| Scenario | Estimated Loss | |----------|---------------| | Base case (18% probability) | $41.31 million | | Severe drought | $252.4 million | | Extreme drought | $823.7 million |

What This Means for Expats

If you lived through Ecuador's 2024 blackouts, you know what's at stake: multi-hour outages, disrupted internet, water pump failures in apartment buildings, and spoiled food.

Practical steps to take now:

• Invest in a UPS (uninterruptible power supply) for your router and work equipment — essential for remote workers
• Consider a portable power station if your work depends on continuous electricity
• Check your building's water system — many Ecuadorian apartments rely on electric pumps for upper floors
• Stock non-perishable food and keep flashlights accessible
• If you're on IESS-dependent medication, ensure you have buffer supply

October is five months away, and 18% is a probability, not a certainty. But Ecuador's grid operates on thin margins, and the combination of lost Colombian imports and an unreliable flagship plant makes preparation prudent.

Source: Primicias, citing Cenace data