Colombia’s Power Risk Could Complicate Ecuador’s Dry-Season Imports

What happened

Ecuador expects to resume electricity imports from Colombia to reduce its dry-season power deficit, but Colombia is facing its own supply risks.

The dry season is expected to begin in October 2026. Under a severe drought scenario, Ecuador could face an electricity deficit of 1,300 megawatts.

The Colombia-Ecuador interconnection can allow Colombia to send up to 450 megawatts to Ecuador. That is about 10% of Ecuador's average demand of 4,200 to 4,500 megawatts.

Colombia’s own warning signs

Colombia's grid operator warned in a July 17 bulletin about demand growth, delayed generation projects, and lower water levels at hydroelectric reservoirs.

Only 669 megawatts of an expected 4,475 megawatts of new Colombian capacity had entered operation by July 16. That is 14.9% of the expected total.

Colombia's maximum demand reached 12,475 megawatts, a 6.67% increase from July 2025.

Former Colombian mines and energy minister Amylkar Acosta said Colombia already has limitations and is close to rationing, although he said the country is not yet in rationing.

Why Ecuador cares

Ecuador's past power crisis showed how quickly drought can become a daily-life issue. If Colombia can export, Ecuador gets a useful buffer. If Colombia has to prioritize internal demand in the fourth quarter, exports could be limited at the exact moment Ecuador wants them most.

Colombia suspended electricity sales to Ecuador on January 22, 2026. Colombian minister Edwin Palma said on July 22 that transactions would resume "in coming days," while an industry association said by July 24 that the final rule for international electricity transactions was still missing.

Colombia also has a political handoff ahead: a new government under Abelardo de la Espriella is set to assume office on August 7.

What This Means for Expats

For foreign residents, the point is not to panic-buy batteries today. The point is to watch the September-to-December period with a little more seriousness.

If you work online, run rentals, manage a business, or depend on refrigerated medicine, now is the time to think through backup power, mobile data, and contingency plans. Ecuador may still avoid major disruption, but the Colombia import option is not a guaranteed safety net.

The key question is whether Colombia restarts exports and keeps enough internal supply to continue them when Ecuador's dry-season demand arrives.

Source: Primicias.