Colombia Power Sales to Ecuador May Be Uncertain From November

Colombia may be close to reopening electricity sales to Ecuador, but the window could get complicated later this year.

Colombia stopped selling electricity to Ecuador on January 22, 2026 during the trade dispute between the two countries. On June 7, 2026, Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy published a draft resolution that would allow electricity exports to Ecuador again.

That draft remained open for public comments until June 22, after which Colombia's government is expected to issue the official resolution.

Why November Matters

The complication is El Nino.

Alejandro Castaneda, president of Colombia's power-generation association Andeg, warned that Colombia could have difficulty selling electricity to Ecuador from November 2026 into the first months of 2027 because of drought risk.

Colombia normally uses September to November to refill hydroelectric reservoirs before the lower-rainfall period from December to March.

Castaneda said Colombia's reservoirs are currently at 75%, with a goal of reaching 80% in November. How much surplus energy Colombia can sell will depend on the length and strength of the dry period.

Why Ecuador Cares

Ecuador's dry season is expected from October 2026 through March 2027. If that period is severe, Ecuador's generation deficit could reach about 1,300 MW.

If Colombia sells electricity to Ecuador, that deficit could fall to 850 MW, because the transmission line can supply about 450 MW.

That 450 MW is almost 10% of Ecuador's average demand, which is between 4,200 MW and 4,500 MW.

What This Means for Expats

This is one to keep on the radar for late 2026, especially if you lived through prior power cuts.

A resumed Colombia connection would help Ecuador, but it is not a guaranteed shield if El Nino affects Colombia's reservoirs. The practical takeaway is to watch official power updates as the October-March dry-season window gets closer.