Fedexpor Projects 6-7% Export Growth for 2026 — Down Sharply From 18% in 2025

After a banner year, Ecuador's export engine is downshifting — but not stalling.

The Forecast

On February 19, 2026, Fedexpor (Federacion Ecuatoriana de Exportadores) — Ecuador's national federation of exporters — released its official growth projection for the year. President Xavier Rosero announced that non-petroleum exports are expected to grow 6-7% in 2026, with the potential to reach 10% with strategic government interventions.

The projection represents a sharp deceleration from 2025's remarkable 18% growth, which was Ecuador's strongest export performance in over a decade. While 6-7% growth is still positive and would outpace most South American economies, the slowdown reflects real headwinds that Ecuador's export sector must navigate.

2025 in Review — What Drove 18% Growth

Before analyzing 2026, it is worth understanding why 2025 was exceptional:

• Cacao prices surged to historic highs — global supply shortages (driven by crop failures in West Africa) pushed cacao prices above $8,000 per metric tonne, and Ecuador as the world's third-largest cacao producer benefited enormously
• Flower exports hit records — Valentine's Day and Mother's Day demand from the US drove Ecuadorian rose exports to approximately $1 billion
• Shrimp recovered — Ecuador's shrimp industry bounced back from the 2023-2024 disease challenges, regaining market share in China and the US
• New markets opened — Ecuadorian blueberries, dragon fruit, and avocados gained traction in the US, Europe, and Asia
• Weak competition — political instability in Peru and Bolivia reduced those countries' export capacity, creating openings for Ecuadorian products

The 18% growth was partially driven by price effects (especially cacao) rather than volume, which makes a correction in 2026 unsurprising.

The Headwinds for 2026

Fedexpor's more conservative forecast reflects several distinct challenges:

1. US Tariff Uncertainty

While Ecuador's Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) with the US eliminates tariffs on qualifying exports, the broader US tariff environment remains volatile. The 10% global tariff surcharge and potential additional country-specific tariffs create uncertainty for Ecuadorian exporters who sell into supply chains that involve third countries.

Example: An Ecuadorian cacao exporter selling to a Swiss chocolate manufacturer who then exports to the US could face tariff complications at multiple points in the chain.

2. The Colombia Trade Dispute

The 30% reciprocal tariffs between Ecuador and Colombia have disrupted bilateral trade worth approximately $4 billion annually. Colombia is Ecuador's second-largest trading partner after the United States, and the trade war affects:

• Processed food exports to Colombia
• Manufactured goods crossing the border in both directions
• Agricultural inputs that Ecuadorian farmers source from Colombia
• Border commerce in the Tulcan-Ipiales corridor

If the trade dispute persists through 2026, Fedexpor estimates it could shave 1-2 percentage points off overall export growth.

3. Falling Cacao Prices

After peaking above $12,000 per metric tonne in late 2025, global cacao prices have fallen sharply in early 2026 as West African production recovers. As of mid-February, cacao is trading near $7,500/tonne — still historically elevated but well below the peaks.

Ecuador produces approximately 350,000 tonnes of cacao annually, and the price decline directly impacts:

• Export revenue from raw cacao beans (Ecuador's second-largest non-petroleum export)
• Value-added chocolate manufacturers who had expanded during the price boom
• Small farmer income — most of Ecuador's cacao is grown by smallholders with fewer than 10 hectares

4. Energy Costs and Infrastructure

The Colombia electricity dispute (see our related coverage) and ongoing infrastructure gaps add costs to Ecuador's export supply chain. Transportation bottlenecks, port congestion at Guayaquil, and unreliable cold chain logistics for perishable products remain structural constraints.

The Opportunities

Despite the headwinds, Fedexpor identified several growth drivers:

US Trade Deal Dividend

The ART is expected to accelerate flower exports by 15-20% as zero tariffs make Ecuadorian roses, gypsophila, and other varieties more competitive against Colombian and Dutch flowers. The flower sector alone could add $150-200 million in export revenue.

Panama and UAE Negotiations

Ecuador is in active trade negotiations with both Panama and the United Arab Emirates. The Panama agreement would facilitate re-export trade through the Canal Zone, while the UAE deal would open access to Gulf state markets for Ecuadorian agricultural products.

Blueberry and Dragon Fruit Expansion

Ecuador's highland blueberry production has grown 300% since 2022, and the country is emerging as a major off-season supplier to the US market. Similarly, dragon fruit (pitahaya) from the Amazon foothills has found enthusiastic demand in Asia and North America. Both products are early in their growth curves.

Mineral Exports

The US strategic minerals designation and Lundin Gold's expansion will push mineral exports higher, diversifying Ecuador's export base away from agricultural dependence.

What This Means for Expats

• The dollarized economy remains healthy but decelerating. Export revenue is the primary source of dollar inflows into Ecuador. Slower export growth means slower economic expansion — though 6-7% growth is still solid by regional standards. Expats should not expect dramatic economic deterioration, but the euphoria of 2025 is tempering
• Cacao price declines affect local businesses. If you buy from local chocolate artisans, visit cacao farms for agritourism, or have invested in cacao-related ventures, the price correction will ripple through the sector. Small producers are most vulnerable, and some may reduce production or shift to other crops
• The Colombia trade dispute affects consumer prices. Colombian goods — from processed foods to building materials — are staples in Ecuadorian commerce. The 30% tariff makes these products more expensive. Expect price increases on items commonly sourced from Colombia in supermarkets and hardware stores
• Flower sector growth means highland economic activity. If you live in the central highlands (Cayambe, Latacunga, Ambato, Riobamba), the expanding flower industry creates local jobs and economic vitality. Flower farm workers spend their earnings in local economies
• Watch government fiscal health. Ecuador's government relies on export-related tax revenue (income taxes on exporters, port fees, VAT on exported goods processing). Slower export growth could tighten government budgets, potentially affecting public services and infrastructure investment
• Diversification is the right call. Ecuador's push into blueberries, dragon fruit, minerals, and value-added manufacturing is exactly the kind of economic strategy that creates long-term stability. The more diverse Ecuador's export base, the less vulnerable it is to any single commodity price swing

Sources: El Universo, Fedexpor, El Comercio, World Bank Commodity Outlook