New Fuel Prices Are Live: Diesel Breaks $3, Shortages Confirmed, Refinery Restart Set for Thursday

The fuel prices we warned about yesterday are now official. As of May 12, all grades are up — and diesel has broken the $3-per-gallon barrier for the first time in Ecuador's history.

The New Prices

| Fuel | Price (May 12) | Previous | Change | |------|---------------|----------|--------| | Extra / Ecopaís | $3.16/gal | $3.02/gal | +4.6% | | Super Premium 95 | $4.81/gal | $4.57/gal | +5.3% | | Diesel Premium | $3.10/gal | $2.96/gal | +4.8% |

These prices hold through June 11 under Ecuador's monthly stabilization band, which caps increases at 5% per month.

Shortages Are Hitting Hard

The hoarding we reported yesterday has turned into confirmed shortages. Ivo Rosero, president of the petroleum distributors chamber (Camddepe), stated that stations "aren't able to purchase the required volumes at distribution terminals."

In Quito, at least two major stations — on Avenida Eloy Alfaro and Avenida 6 de Diciembre — closed Monday morning. Stations in Tumbaco indicated they wouldn't reopen until the afternoon. Guayaquil is also reporting shortages of Extra and Ecopaís.

The government's response: threats of legal action against speculators and assurances that nationwide supply is adequate.

The Structural Problem

This isn't just a pricing cycle. Ecuador is now importing 65% of its fuel demand because the Esmeraldas refinery — the country's main domestic production facility — is operating at just 33-40% capacity.

The critical FCC (Fluid Catalytic Cracking) unit has been offline. Petroecuador says a restart is scheduled for May 15, with full operations targeted by June 2 at approximately 85% capacity.

The geopolitical overlay makes it worse: the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global petroleum transits. International crude has pushed toward $80-100 per barrel, making Ecuador's fuel imports increasingly expensive.

The government is absorbing part of the cost through subsidies: $1.93 per gallon on diesel and $0.59 on Extra/Ecopaís.

What This Means for Expats

Immediate: If you're in Quito or Guayaquil, fill up when you can. Supply should normalize once the FCC unit restarts around May 15.

Cost impact: A standard sedan tank costs roughly $3-5 more than last month. But the bigger hit is indirect — when diesel rises, transportation costs rise, and everything from groceries to building materials follows.

Longer term: Ecuador's 65% import dependency and aging refinery infrastructure mean fuel price volatility is structural, not temporary. Budget accordingly.

Sources: El Universo, Primicias, Teleamazonas