Ecuador Braces for Intensifying El Niño Rains from November 2026, Guayaquil Records Historic September Rainfall

Ecuador is preparing for a significant escalation of the El Niño phenomenon, with the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Inamhi) forecasting a marked intensification of associated rains between November and December 2026. These conditions are anticipated to persist into the first months of 2027, potentially leading to a higher incidence of El Niño-linked precipitation.

The El Niño phenomenon was officially declared on August 29, 2026, following the National Committee for the Regional Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Erfen) confirming that all four criteria of the national protocol were met. In response to this declaration, the Ecuadorian government activated a national red alert, signaling the seriousness of the anticipated impacts.

Currently, the Litoral region has begun an initial stage of transition and atmospheric coupling, driven by warm conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This process is expected to progressively increase the frequency of rainfall throughout September, with some rural areas already experiencing isolated showers. The forecast indicates that rains will continue in various parts of the Coast during October, though with variable intensities. However, the most noticeable change is projected for November and December, when both the frequency and intensity of precipitation are expected to rise significantly.

Recent data from Guayaquil underscores the early impacts of this phenomenon. As of September 2026, rainfall in the city has already exceeded the historical normal average for the month by 36 times at the José Joaquín de Olmedo Airport meteorological station. In the first 14 days of September 2026, 25.6 millimeters (mm) of rain were recorded at the airport. This figure is 36.6 times the normal monthly average for September, which is typically only 0.7 mm. To put this into perspective, the 25.6 mm recorded in just half of September more than doubles the total accumulated precipitation in September 1997 (12.4 mm), which occurred during the initial phase of the devastating 1997-1998 El Niño phenomenon.

International forecasts for the 2026-2027 El Niño indicate it will be "strong to very strong," with the period of greatest intensity expected towards the end of 2026, specifically between October and December. It is projected to remain active at least until the first quarter of 2027. Authorities from the National Erfen Committee have noted a "relative similarity" between the current event's oceanic warming patterns and those of historical magnitude events, particularly the 1997-1998 El Niño, which is remembered as the most destructive in Ecuador's recent history. That event caused hundreds of deaths, tens of thousands of evacuees, and estimated losses of USD 2.882 million, representing 14.6% of Ecuador's GDP at the time. A severe El Niño event could potentially cost Ecuador up to 20% of its GDP and require more than five years for recovery.

Inamhi maintains permanent monitoring of oceanic and atmospheric conditions to track the phenomenon's evolution and communicate any changes to the predicted scenario. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned in early September 2026 that the current El Niño event will be "very strong" and extend until February 2027, with a 75% probability of being a historic event, surpassing all previously recorded records.

What This Means for Expats

Expats residing in Ecuador, particularly those in coastal and Amazonian regions, should be aware of the escalating El Niño conditions. The national red alert signifies a heightened state of preparedness and potential for significant disruption. While the Sierra region may experience indirect effects, the primary impact of heavy rainfall, potential flooding, and associated infrastructure challenges will be concentrated in the Litoral and Amazonian areas.

Given the historical parallels to the 1997-1998 event and the current record-breaking rainfall in Guayaquil, it is prudent for residents to stay informed through official channels like Inamhi. This includes monitoring local weather alerts, understanding potential impacts on travel and daily routines, and preparing for possible disruptions to services. Those living in low-lying or flood-prone areas should consider contingency plans. While the full extent of the impact is still developing, the current forecasts suggest a challenging period ahead, emphasizing the importance of vigilance and preparedness.

Sources: eluniverso.com; primicias.ec; primicias.ec.

Image: existing site image, illustrative.