Ecuador's Central Bank Projects 2.5% Growth in 2026 — Revised Up, But Below Last Year

The Projection

Ecuador's Banco Central del Ecuador (BCE) released its updated macroeconomic projections, according to El Universo (source).

The 2026 GDP growth projection: "crecerá el 2,5 % en 2026" — 2.5%.

That's "alza del 0,7 % con respecto a las previsiones de septiembre del 2025" — a 0.7 percentage point upward revision from what the BCE said six months ago.

In Context

For reference, per the article: "en 2025 la economía ecuatoriana creció 3,7 %." That's a meaningful deceleration: 3.7% → 2.5%.

Medium term, the BCE sees growth averaging "un promedio de 2,8 % en el periodo 2027-2029" — roughly 2.8% annually through 2027-2029. In other words: no return to the 2025 pace, but a steadier and moderately expansionary outlook.

The Rest of the Forecast

• Inflation: "inflación promedio de 1,8 % en 2026" — 1.8% average inflation. Low by regional standards and consistent with Ecuador's dollarized regime.
• Private credit: "crecimiento del crédito al sector privado de 10,0 % en 2026" — credit growth of 10%. That's a strong signal on lending conditions.
• External balance: "superávit de $ 6.420 millones" — a $6.42 billion external-account surplus projected for 2026.

Growth Drivers

Per the BCE's framing, the engines of 2026 growth are:

• "exportaciones no petroleras" — non-oil exports
• "el desempeño del sector minero" — mining sector performance
• "los flujos de remesas" — remittances

All three of those are structurally important and largely independent of oil price volatility — a positive shift for an economy that has historically been oil-revenue-sensitive.

The Risks

The BCE explicitly names three:

• "posibles crisis energéticas" — possible energy crises (relevant given the ongoing blackouts and grid stress on the coast)
• "la volatilidad de los precios de los commodities" — commodity price volatility
• "eventos climáticos como El Niño" — climate events like El Niño

The energy crisis risk is not hypothetical — see CENACE's warnings and the 12-hour blackouts on the coast this week.

What This Means for Expats

• 1.8% inflation is good news for cost of living. Ecuador's dollarized economy already provides natural inflation resistance, and a BCE forecast in this range means your grocery bills, rent, and utilities shouldn't spike much over 2026. Compare to the U.S. (still ~2.5-3%) or most of Latin America.
• 10% private credit growth is bullish for business conditions. If you're running an Ecuadorian business or considering starting one, this signals that banks are expanding lending. Mortgage and small-business credit availability should improve.
• 2.5% growth is a moderate economy. Not a boom, not a recession. For expats, that usually means a stable labor market (if you're hiring), predictable housing demand, and steady tourism flows. Don't expect windfall conditions; don't expect a downturn either.
• The energy-crisis risk is worth taking seriously. The BCE flagging it as a top-three risk tells you their economists see current grid stress as a meaningful growth drag. If you live on the coast, factor blackout-readiness into any 2026 business planning.
• Remittances are a growth driver — and they matter for expats. Inbound dollar flows from Ecuadorians abroad are a huge source of domestic demand. That supports the retail, housing, and services economy in ways expats benefit from indirectly.

2.5% growth and 1.8% inflation is, on paper, a good year to live here.

Source: El Universo