Ecuador Confirms El Niño Is In Its Initial Phase, With Immediate Rain Impact Still Limited

Ecuador's El Niño monitoring group says the phenomenon is now in its initial development phase, but the main rainfall effects are not expected immediately.

The ERFEN committee confirmed that El Niño is in its initial development phase. The World Meteorological Organization issued a July 3 communication projecting an intense episode between July and September 2026.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the phenomenon will arrive in the coming months with 90% certainty.

What Ecuador Expects Now

Officials said intense rainfall will not affect Ecuador immediately. A weather official said the atmosphere still needs to connect with the ocean warming, which would probably occur in November or December.

For the next few weeks, the Coast and the western and central Sierra are expected to remain under dry-season conditions.

What To Watch

The most immediate signal is temperature. Air temperatures are expected to remain above average, especially along Ecuador's coast.

ERFEN is expected to meet again on July 14.