Mazar Reservoir Holds 23–28 Meters Above 2024 Levels — Government Says "We Have Water"

The Numbers

Ecuador's Mazar reservoir — the strategic upstream storage that feeds the Paute hydroelectric complex — is in markedly better shape than at the same point in 2024, according to El Universo (source).

Key figures (as of April 16, 2026):

| Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current level | ~2,137 m.s.n.m. | | Stored energy capacity | ~61% | | Above 2024 same-period | +23 to +28 meters | | Maximum capacity | 2,153 m.s.n.m. | | Minimum operating | 2,098 m.s.n.m. | | Storage volume | 410 million m³ | | Reservoir length | 31 km |

Energy Minister Inés Manzano: "Estamos bien con el tema de generación eléctrica, tenemos agua" — we're fine on electricity generation, we have water.

The Generation Mix

Hydroelectric provided 72.3% of national power output on April 16, with the breakdown:

• Coca Codo Sinclair: 40% of hydro generation
• Paute Molino: 19% of hydro generation
• Remaining sources: thermal and renewable

For context: Ecuador has been hitting historic peak demand records in April (5,374 MW on April 14 — see our prior coverage), and CENACE warned of possible blackouts across coastal CNEL service territory. Mazar's water level matters because it determines how much hydro generation can be sustained over coming weeks if rain doesn't refill the system.

Why This Matters

Mazar is the storage reservoir for the Paute complex. Paute Molino downstream provides ~19% of national hydro output, but it can only generate as long as Mazar releases water.

In 2023-2024, Mazar's level dropped sharply during the dry season (October-December), forcing rolling blackouts nationwide. The 23-28 meters above 2024 comparison is what the government is leaning on to argue this year's dry season won't repeat that crisis.

Whether that holds depends on rainfall through Q3 2026. Forecasts on April 16 showed an 88% probability of daytime rainfall in the Mazar catchment area — a positive short-term signal.

What This Means for Expats

For people in Cuenca, Quito, and the Sierra:

• The current Mazar position is genuinely better than this time last year. That's a real positive for grid reliability through mid-year.
• Don't relax on backup planning yet. The 2024 dry-season crisis hit October-December. Mazar's April level matters less than its September-October level.

For people on the Coast (Guayaquil, Manta, Salinas):

• The current blackouts are not a Mazar problem. They're a transmission and distribution capacity problem in the coastal CNEL grid (peak demand outpacing local infrastructure). Mazar levels won't fix coastal blackouts in the short term.
• However, sufficient hydro generation lets CENACE keep the national system supplied. If Mazar were low, the coastal situation would be much worse.

Practical takeaways:

• Keep your inverter/UPS/generator ready through May at minimum — peak demand season is not over.
• Don't time-shift major appliance use to assume reliable evening power. Especially on the coast.
• For the dry season (Sep-Dec) outlook, watch El Universo and Primicias for monthly Mazar updates. That's the leading indicator for whether 2024-style nationwide blackouts return.

Source: El Universo