Noboa's Q1 2026 Numbers: 9.4% Sales Growth, Country Risk at 416 bps, $533M in Public Investment

The Government's Pitch

In a national broadcast on April 17, 2026, President Daniel Noboa presented Q1 2026 economic results, per El Universo and El Telégrafo (source).

The headline numbers:

| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change | |---|---|---|---| | Sales (national) | $57.7B | $63.2B | +9.4% | | Country risk (bps) | 1,908 (Apr 10, 2025) | 416 | -78% | | Public investment | $42M | $533M | +1,169% | | Construction sector growth | — | +20% YoY | — | | Real estate growth | — | +17.8% YoY | — | | Biess first-home mortgage rate | — | 2.99% | — |

The administration also branded 2026 as "The Year of Construction" and signed economic cooperation agreements with the United States, United Arab Emirates, and South Korea in Q1.

What These Numbers Actually Mean

A few practical translations:

Country risk at 416 bps. This is the spread Ecuadorian sovereign debt trades at over U.S. Treasuries. A year ago it was at 1,908 — among the highest in Latin America, signaling serious default fear. Today's 416 is roughly in line with Brazil. It means international investors view Ecuador as much less risky. For expats, this matters mostly through interest rates and Ecuadorian peso (well, dollar) stability.

Sales growth at 9.4%. This is nominal, not real. Inflation in Ecuador runs roughly 1-2%, so the real growth number is ~7-8% — still strong if accurate. Worth noting: this is a government-presented figure on a government broadcast, not an independent economic report.

Public investment up 12x YoY. This is the most striking number. Q1 2025 was the immediate pre-election period under the prior interim arrangement; spending was minimal. Q1 2026 is post-election Noboa rolling out his second-term agenda. Higher comparable but not the 12x story it sounds like.

Biess mortgage at 2.99% for first-time homebuyers. This is the new headline rate at the IESS-affiliated bank. For comparison, private bank mortgage rates in Ecuador run 8-12%. This is a significant subsidy and a meaningful lever for first-home access — though only available to IESS-affiliated buyers (typically formal-sector workers).

What This Means for Expats

For real estate buyers:

• The Biess 2.99% mortgage rate is not for foreigners directly — it requires IESS affiliation. If you have residency and have voluntarily affiliated, you may qualify after meeting contribution requirements.
• Construction sector growth at +20% means new supply is coming. Expect more inventory hitting the market in Quito, Cuenca, Samborondón, and coastal corridors over the next 12 months.
• Real estate at +17.8% likely reflects price growth, not just transaction growth. Specific market data should be tracked locally — but the broad direction is up.

For people sending or holding U.S. dollars:

• Lower country risk supports dollar stability. Ecuador's dollarization is constitutional and operationally locked in — but lower country risk reduces the political pressure that occasionally rears its head around dollarization debates.
• Bank deposits get fractionally safer in narrative. Real deposit safety depends on individual banks (still fragmented), not country risk.

For business operators:

• The growth narrative is consistent with what businesses are reporting on the ground — but watch the H1 GDP release from BCE for the independent number.
• Trade agreements with the U.S., UAE, and South Korea open structural opportunities (see our Korea coverage today) — but tariff and customs implementation lag the headline signing dates.

Sources: El Universo, El Telégrafo